A Memory-Based Model of Bounded Rationality
基于心理学和生物学研究构建了一个记忆模型，假设人们视记忆为准确并据此推断，预测了过度反应和反应不足，并用该模型研究消费决策，结果与消费可预测性及不同收入来源的边际消费倾向差异等实证研究一致。
In order to investigate the impact of limited memory on human behavior, I develop a model of memory grounded in psychological and biological research. I assume that people take their memories as accurate and use them to make inferences. The resulting model predicts both over- and underreaction but provides enough structure to predict when each effect dominates. I then use this framework to study the consumption decision. The results match empirical work on consumption predictability as well as differences in the marginal propensity to consume from different income streams. Most importantly, because it ties the extent of bias to a measurable aspect of the stochastic process being forecasted, the model makes testable empirical predictions.