购买力平价汇率规则、宏观经济(不)稳定性与学习

PPP EXCHANGE RATE RULES, MACROECONOMIC (IN)STABILITY, AND LEARNING*

International Economic Review · 2009
被引 9
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

研究发展中国家为维持竞争力而采取的购买力平价汇率规则,发现这类规则可能引发宏观经济不稳定,产生可被经济主体学习的太阳黑子波动,其存在取决于开放度和汇率传导程度。

Abstract

In order to maintain competitiveness, governments in developing economies seem to have pursued purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rate rules, by adjusting the nominal devaluation rate in response to real exchange rate deviations from an intermediate target. This article shows that these rules are likely to induce macroeconomic instability, as they generate sunspot‐driven fluctuations that are in fact learnable by agents in the Expectational‐Stability sense. It finds that the existence of these “learnable sunspots” depends, among others, on open economy features, including the degree of openness and the degree of exchange rate pass‐through to consumer's import prices.

购买力平价汇率规则宏观经济不稳定学习性太阳黑子汇率传导