Effects of Terms of Trade Gains and Tariff Changes on the Measurement of US Productivity Growth
研究了美国贸易条件改善和关税降低(尤其是IT产品)对生产率增长测量的影响,发现官方指数可能低估了实际收益。
The acceleration in US productivity growth since 1995 is often attributed to declining prices for information technology (IT) goods, and therefore enhanced productivity growth in that sector. We investigate an alternative explanation for these IT price movements: gains in the US terms of trade and tariff reductions, especially for IT products, which led to greater gains than shown by official indexes. We do not, however, investigate the indexes used to deflate the domestic absorption components of GDP, and if upward biases are present in those indexes that could offset some of the effects of mismeasured export and import indexes.