Production Risk and Optimal Fertilizer Rates: A Random Coefficient Model
用随机系数模型估计菲律宾雨养水稻产量的概率分布，发现中等风险厌恶的农户施氮量仅比利润最大化水平低7-10公斤，说明生产风险并非施肥量低的主因。
Abstract This paper demonstrates that low levels of fertilizer use on rainfed rice in the Philippines cannot be attributed to production risk. A random coefficient model estimated the objective probability distribution of yield. This was incorporated into a utility‐maximization framework to predict that moderately risk‐averse farmers would apply only seven to ten kilograms less than the profit‐maximizing N‐rate. Previous studies have established that risk was not a major impediment to fertilizer use in irrigated areas. This paper extends this conclusion to rainfed rice production in the Philippines.