Can Fixed-term Contracts Put Low Skilled Youth on a Better Career Path? Evidence from Spain
利用西班牙社保数据和队列断点回归，发现1984年固定期限合同自由化改革使男性高中辍学生19岁前就业率提高9%，但长期工作天数减少4.5%、收入降低9%。
By reducing the commitment made by employers, fixed-term contracts can help low-skilled youth find a first job. However, the long-term impact of fixed-term contracts on these workers’ careers may be negative. Using Spanish social security data, we analyze the impact of a large liberalization in the regulation of fixed-term contracts in 1984. Using a cohort regression discontinuity design, we find that the reform raised the likelihood of male high-school dropouts working before age 19 by 9%. However, in the longer run, the reform reduced number of days worked (by 4.5%) and earnings (by 9%).