Measuring the NAIRU: Evidence from Seven Economies
用状态空间模型估计了七个经济体过去28年的非加速通胀失业率，发现菲利普斯曲线回归的估计值不能反映失业率的低频变化，且标准误极大；加入失业行为信息可改善估计。
Several specifications of state-space models are used to obtain estimates of the NAIRU for the G7 except Japan, plus Australia, over the past 28 years. A Phillips curve-type regression is shown to deliver estimates that do not mimic low-frequency movements in unemployment rates, even when a drift is included in the specification of the NAIRU. Standard errors around the estimates are extremely large. Using information about the behavior of unemployment, in addition to inflation, alleviates both these shortcomings. © 2001 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology