Macroeconomic Fragility and Exchange Rate Vulnerability: A Cautionary Record of Transition Economies
研究了1990-1996年转型经济体汇率制度与宏观经济稳定的互动，发现高通胀和汇率低估导致实际升值，而利率差异和资本流入加剧了贸易竞争力问题，强调财政纪律对控制通胀的重要性。
The interaction between the exchange rate regime and macroeconomic stabilization in several transition economies during 1990–1996 was influenced by the persistence of high inflation rates and the initial disequilibrium between the highly undervalued nominal exchange rates in relation to their purchasing power parity estimates. Policymakers generally adopted the flexible (nominal) exchange rate regimes for manipulating real exchange rates with a view to correcting the exchange rate disequilibrium and conveying inflation control signals. The rates of real appreciation were higher in the earlier years of high inflation rates. By 1996, lower inflation rates required less currency appreciations thereby reducing the negative impact of the latter on trade competitiveness. However, the persistence of unwarranted interest rate differentials, a consequence of the domination of monetary control over prudent fiscal management, and the associated inflows of foreign funds put an upward pressure on exchange rates exacerbating trade competitiveness. The transition record suggests that innovative exchange rate arrangements can provide only a brief interval during which sound fiscal discipline needs to be put in place for controlling inflation.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1998, 26(4), pp. 621–641. Columbia University, New York, New York 10027.