Analysts Earnings Forecasts and the Roles of Earnings and Book Value in Equity Valuation
研究当前盈利与预期未来盈利的关联程度如何影响盈利和账面价值在解释股价时的相对重要性，发现当前盈利的价值相关性随分析师预测偏离程度增加而降低，而账面价值的增量解释力则随之增加。
This study examines the effect of the degree of association between current earnings and expected future earnings on the relative importance of earnings and book value for explaining equity price. Consensus analysts forecasts of one‐year‐ahead earnings are used to proxy for expected future earnings and are compared to reported current earnings to measure the degree of the association. We find that the value‐relevance of current earnings negatively correlates with the extent to which consensus analysts forecasts deviate from current earnings. We also find that the incremental explanatory power of book value for equity price positively correlates with this measure. These results remain robust after controlling for factors known to be affecting the value‐relevance of earnings such as negative earnings and the earnings‐to‐book ratio. Our results also show that this analysts' forecast‐based measure of `earnings persistence' dominates historical earnings variance in explaining cross‐sectional variations in the value‐relevance of earnings and book value.