Does Forecast Accuracy Matter to Security Analysts?
通过分析师更替与预测准确性的关系，发现相对同行更准确的预测能降低分析师离职概率，但绝对准确性无影响；股票推荐盈利与离职概率无关，表明预测准确性对分析师很重要。
We investigate if earnings forecast accuracy matters to security analysts by examining its association with analyst turnover. Controlling for firm- and time-period effects, forecast horizon and industry forecasting experience, we find that an analyst is more likely to turn over if his forecast accuracy is lower than his peers. We find no association between an analyst's probability of turnover and his absolute forecast accuracy. We also investigate another observable measure of the analyst's performance, the profitability of his stock recommendations. There is no statistical relation between the absolute or relative profitability of an analyst's stock recommendations and his probability of turnover. We interpret our findings as indicating that forecast accuracy is important to analysts.