Investment under Uncertainty: The Case of Replacement Investment Decisions
用或有债权模型分析维护和运营成本不确定时，企业如何决定重置资产的最佳时机，发现成本波动、资产价格和税率会延长重置间隔，而系统风险、残值和投资税收抵免则缩短它。
We analyze the determinants of replacement investment decisions in a contingent claims model with maintenance and operation cost uncertainty. We find that the optimal time between replacements is increasing in the volatility of cost, the purchase price of a new asset, and the corporate tax rate; and is decreasing in the systematic risk of cost, the salvage value of the asset, and the investment tax credit. The optimal time between replacements can either increase or decrease with an increase in the depreciation rate. Extensions of the model to examine the effects of technological and tax policy uncertainty on replacement investment decisions give intuitive, but striking results. Uncertainty about the arrival of a technological innovation that would decrease maintenance and operation cost results in a significant decrease in replacement investment. Uncertainty in a tax law change that would encourage investment decreases current investment; and uncertainty in a tax law change that would discourage investment increases current investment.