Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Hyperinflationary World: Experimental Evidence
通过代际交叠实验经济，研究政府用铸币税融资固定实际赤字时的均衡不确定性。实验未观察到非平稳理性预期路径，路径多收敛于低通胀稳态，适应性学习假说能解释稳态选择，但简单模型无法捕捉市场不确定性和数据偏差。
The authors design and study an OLG experimental economy where the government finances a fixed real deficit through seigniorage. The economy has continua of nonstationary rational expectations equilibria and two stationary rational expectations equilibria. The authors do not observe nonstationary rational expectations paths. Observed paths tend to converge close to, or somewhat below, the low inflation stationary state. The adaptive learning hypothesis is consistent with the data in selecting the low inflation stationary state rational expectations equilibrium as a long-run stationary equilibrium. Nevertheless, simple adaptive learning models do not capture the market uncertainty or the biases observed in the data. Copyright 1993 by The Econometric Society.