Sources of Output Fluctuations During the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression
分解1913-1940年产出波动为总供给和总需求冲击，发现1929年股市崩盘后总需求大幅下降，1931年中起总供给崩溃伴随银行恐慌，对研究大萧条成因的学者有参考价值。
This paper decomposes output fluctuations during the 1913 to 1940 period into components resulting from aggregate supply and aggregate demand shocks. We estimates a number of different models, all of which yield qualitatively similar results. While identification is normally achieved by assuming that aggregate demand shocks have no long run real effects, we also estimate models that allow demand shocks to permanently affect output. Our findings support the following three conclusions: (i) there was a large negative aggregate demand shock in November 1929, immediately after the stock market crash; (ii) aggregate demand shocks are mainly responsible for the decline in output through mid to late 1931; (iii) beginning in mid 1931 there is an aggregate supply collapse that coincides with the onset on severe bank panics.