The Dispersion Hypothesis in Macroeconomics
质疑宏观总量行为稳定的传统假设，提出经济活动分散性可解释失业波动，并通过消费和投资模型及计量证据支持该假说。
Macroeconomics has always rested on the fiction that the behavior of aggregates was stable and, therefore, individual market phenomena could be safely ignored. In an important recent contribution, David M. Lilien challenged this fiction and argued that a large component of fluctuations in unemployment could be explained by the dispersion of employment growth across industries. This paper develops models of consumption and investment paper in which the dispersion of economic activity can play a role. The econometric evidence suggests an important role for the dispersion of economic activity in explaining aggregate consumption and investment.