Surprised by the Parimutuel Odds?
分析帕里穆图尔博彩市场中的热门-冷门偏差，认为该偏差源于投注者基于私人信息同时下注，且未能将最终赔率揭示的惊讶信息纳入考虑。
Empirical analyses of parimutuel betting markets have documented that market probabilities of favorites (longshots) tend to underestimate (overestimate) the corresponding empirical probabilities. We argue that this favorite-longshot bias is consistent with bettors taking simultaneous positions on the basis of private information about the likelihood of different outcomes. The ex post realization of a high market probability indicates favorable information about the occurrence of an outcome—and the opposite is true for longshots. This explanation for the bias relies on the bettors' inability to incorporate the surprise revealed by the final odds.