Optimal Rangeland Stocking Decisions Under Stochastic and Climate‐Impacted Weather
开发了一个随机动态规划模型，分析在天气不确定和气候变化情景下牧场的最优放牧率，发现降水变率增加会降低最优放牧率和盈利性。
A Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model is developed to analyze optimal stocking rates in the face of weather uncertainty and potential climate change projections. The model extends previous work modeling grazing as a predator‐prey relationship. Attention is given to profit maximizing decisions when growing season precipitation is unknown. Comparisons are made across results from a model that utilizes constant growing season precipitation in all years. Results suggest that optimal stocking rates and profitability decrease in climate change scenarios with increased precipitation variability as compared to the historical stochastic weather scenario.