Technology, Utilization and Inflation: What Drives the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?
指出新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线文献未能提供令人信服的实际边际成本度量，通过建模允许非单位要素替代、非中性技术变化和时变要素利用率，构建了更符合美国数据波动和水平变化的成本度量，并发现其包含顺周期利用率成分，对通胀预期权重估计有重要影响。
We argue that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve literature has failed to deliver a convincing measure of real marginal costs. We start from a careful modeling of optimal price setting allowing for nonunitary factor substitution, nonneutral technical change, and time‐varying factor utilization rates. This ensures the resulting real marginal cost measures match volatility reductions and level changes witnessed in many U.S. time series. The cost measure comprises conventional countercyclical cost elements plus procyclical (and covarying) utilization rates. Although procyclical elements seem to dominate, the components of real marginal cost components are becoming less cyclical over time. Incorporating this richer driving variable produces more plausible price‐stickiness estimates than otherwise and suggests a more balanced weight of backward‐ and forward‐looking inflation expectations than commonly found. Our results challenge existing views of inflation determinants and have important implications for modeling inflation in New Keynesian models.