Testing for the Lucas Critique: A Quantitative Investigation
用真实商业周期模型验证卢卡斯批判在理论上的重要性，并检验超外生性检验在实践中的有效性，发现该检验在小样本中无法检测卢卡斯批判的相关性。
In this paper, I try to shed some new light on the “puzzle” of why the Lucas critique, believed to be important by most economists, seems to have received very little empirical support. I use a real-business-cycle model to verify that the Lucas critique is quantitatively important in theory, and to examine the properties of the super-exogeneity test, which is used to detect the applicability of the Lucas critique in practice. The results suggest that the superexogeneity test is not capable of detecting the relevance of the Lucas critique in practice in small samples.