How Do Behavioral Assumptions Affect Structural Inference? Evidence From a Laboratory Experiment
通过实验室实验，研究在动态离散决策问题中假设理性预期对结构推断的影响，发现复杂启发式比理性预期更拟合数据，但理性预期假设不扭曲折现率的截面分布推断。
AbstractWe use laboratory experiments to investigate the effect that assuming rational expectations has on structural inference in a dynamic discrete decision problem. Our design induces preferences up to the subjective rate of time preference, leaving unrestricted both this parameter and subjects' decision rules. We estimate subjects' discount rates under the assumption that all subjects use the rational expectations decision rule, and under weaker behavioral assumptions that allow decision rule heterogeneity. We find that certain sophisticated heuristics fit subjects' decisions statistically significantly better than rational expectations. However, the rational expectations assumption does not distort inferences about the cross-sectional discount rate distribution.KEY WORDS: DiscountingHeterogeneityHeuristicsRational expectationsSearchStatistical classification algorithm