Fiscal Policy Multipliers on Subnational Government Spending
研究了美国州级政府平衡预算规则导致的支出顺周期性，利用财政制度产生的自然实验估算赤字融资支出的乘数，发现乘数小于1，低于相关研究，表明未来债务和税收对当前消费与投资有抑制作用。
Balanced budget requirements lead to substantial pro-cyclicality in state government spending, with the stringency of a state's rules driving the pace at which it must adjust to shocks. We show that fiscal institutions can generate natural experiments in deficit-financed spending that are informative regarding fiscal stabilization policy. Alternative sources of variation in subnational fiscal policy often implicitly involve “windfall” financing, which precludes any effect of future debt or taxation on current consumption and investment. Consistent with a role for these “Ricardian” effects, our estimates are smaller than those in related studies, implying an on-impact multiplier below 1.