The Impact of Recession on the Prediction of Corporate Failure
检验经济衰退是否影响企业失败预测模型，发现基于会计数据的逻辑回归模型对衰退期间的数据和失败事件敏感。
In this paper, we hypothesize that recessionary business cycles can contribute to corporate failure. Specifically, we test for a relationship between failure and (1) knowledge that failure occurred during a recession and (2) knowledge that the predictor variables were measured during a recession. We are able to show that accounting‐based logistic regression models used to predict corporate failure are sensitive to the occurrence of a recession. Furthermore, our results indicate that such models are sensitive to knowledge that the predictor variables were generated during a recession and to knowledge that failure ultimately occurred during a recession.