Managers' Perceptual Errors Revisited: the Role of Knowledge Calibration
从知识校准视角研究管理者感知不准确的后果，提出过度高估外部因素且自信的管理者倾向渐进式战略，而过度高估内部因素且自信的管理者倾向颠覆式战略，部分解释了管理者感知不准确与高效绩效并存的悖论。
Insights from the stream of research on knowledge calibration, which refers to the correspondence between accuracy and confidence in knowledge, enable a better understanding of consequences of inaccurate perceptions of managers. This paper examines the consequences of inaccurate managerial knowledge through the lens of knowledge calibration. Specifically, the paper examines the antecedent role of miscalibration of knowledge in strategy formation. It is postulated that miscalibrated managers who overestimate external factors and display a high level of confidence in their estimates are likely to enact strategies that are relatively more evolutionary and incremental in nature, whereas miscalibrated managers who overestimate internal factors and display a high level of confidence in their estimates are likely to enact strategies that are relatively more discontinuous and disruptive in nature. Perspectives from social cognitive theory provide support for the underlying processes. The paper, in part, explains the paradox of the prevalence of inaccurate managerial perceptions and efficacious performance. It also advances the literature on strategy formation through the application of the construct of knowledge calibration.