Population Growth, Dependency, and Consumption
研究人口增长如何影响人均消费，特别是抚养比（非劳动年龄人口与劳动年龄人口之比）的变化，发现向低人口增长过渡需要经历长期的低抚养期，而生育率上升虽能降低老年抚养比，但会先带来更长的抚养负担期。
This paper examines how population growth affects the average level of utility particularly the consumption per capita. It also focuses on the effects of population growth on the ratio of dependent consumers to working-age adults. The model employed in this paper has three demographic groups: working-age adults who produce and consume and the young and elderly who only consume. This study concluded that the transition to lower population growth requires a long period of reduced dependency in which society benefits from lower spending on children while it has yet to pay for higher old-age dependency. The dependency level after 30 years is not significantly different from that which would exist in an optimal stable population. Any rise in fertility that would decrease old-age dependency in the long run would require a lengthy period of higher-than-steady-state dependency.