Optimal Dynamic R&D Programs
研究单个企业随时间推进研发项目的最优支出模式，发现确定性下应随项目接近完成而增加投入；不确定性下支出率与项目预期价值正相关，且风险更高的项目更受偏好。
We study the optimal pattern of outlays for a single firm pursuing an R&D program over time. In the deterministic case, (a) the amount of progress required to complete the project is known, and (b) the relationship between outlays and progress is known. In this case, it is optimal to increase effort over time as the project nears completion. Relaxing (a), we find in general a simple, positive relationship between the optimal expenditure rate at any point in time and the (expected) value at that time of the research program. We also show that, for a given level ofexpected difficulty, a riskier project is always preferred to a safe project. Relaxing (b), we find again that research outlays increase as further progressis made.