On the Optimal Lifetime of Nuclear Powe Plants
构建核电站最优运营模型，通过最优停止问题求解最佳关闭时机，预测40年许可制与20年续期政策对行业的影响，发现续期可使美国核电站预期折现价值与总发电量翻倍。
We present an empirical model of optimal operation of nuclear power plants. The optimal lifetime is the solution to an optimal stopping problem: The plant is closed when the expected discounted losses from continued operation exceed the discounted costs of decommissioning. We forecast the evolution of the nuclear power industry under the current regime of 40-year operating licenses and for a policy allowing 20-year license extensions. We conclude that the extension would double the expected discounted value of U.S. nuclear power plants and double the undiscounted electrical power output of the U.S. nuclear industry over its remaining lifetime.