Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand
将土壤科学、天气模拟和全球气候模型整合成一个多阶段水稻生产的经济模型，评估气候变化对东南亚水稻产量的影响，并比较不同排放情景下的结果。
Our goal is to evaluate crop yield impacts from likely climate changes for Southeast Asia. \nTo do so we link soil science crop modeling, weather simulators, and global climate change \nmodeling into an integrated economic model of multi-stage rice production. The economic \nmodel is estimated with detailed monthly data on inputs, operations, and environmental data over \na five year period. We then forecast impacts under two different future economic scenarios, one \nassuming high future global anthropogenic pollution emissions, and the other assuming low. We \ncompare results of the integrated economic model with those of a biophysical model, inputting \ninto both the stochastic realizations of a weather generator, calibrated against the present, no \nclimate benchmark and against the two climate mild and severe climate change scenarios. The \nmore realistic forecasts from socio economic model thus include important farmer behavioral/ \nmitigation strategies. We discuss both aggregate/average impacts as well heterogeneity in \nresponse.