Effective Use of Survey Information in Estimating the Evolution of Expected Inflation
利用调查数据建模美国预期通胀期限结构的演变，发现调查预期能捕捉通胀与感知目标之间的滞后，且感知目标的变动是通胀持续性的重要来源，暗示美国战后货币政策并非完全可信。
The evolution of the term structure of expected U.S. inflation is modeled using survey data to provide timely information on structural change not contained in lagged inflation data. To capture shifts in subjective perceptions, the model is adaptive to long‐horizon survey expectations. However, even short‐horizon survey expectations inform shifting‐endpoint estimates that capture the lag between inflation and the perceived inflation target, which anchors inflation expectations. Results show movements of the perceived target are an important source of inflation persistence and suggest historical U.S. monetary policy was not fully credible for much of the postwar sample.