Modeling Heterogeneity and State Dependence in Consumer Choice Behavior
利用番茄酱扫描数据，估计了一个同时考虑偏好异质性和真实状态依赖性的选择模型，发现即使控制异质性后仍存在真实状态依赖，促销对长期购买概率有正向但微弱的影响。
In frequently-purchased-consumer-goods markets, consumer brand choices exhibit substantial persistence across purchase occasions. In this article, I estimate a choice model that admits of both heterogeneity in preferences and true state dependence as sources of this persistence, using Nielsen scanner data on ketchup. I find evidence for true state dependence in the choice process, even after controlling for a rich heterogeneity structure. Simulation of the model indicates that the long-term effect of a promotion-induced purchase on future purchase probabilities is positive but small.