A Hazard Rate Approach to the Timing of Births
讨论经济学家分析生育时机的两种方法，构建适用于其中一种方法的实证模型，并用哥斯达黎加家庭调查数据展示其有效性。危险率技术适用于事件发生不确定的广泛问题。
"This paper discusses two approaches that economists have taken in analyzing the timing of births. It formulates an empirical model appropriate for one of these approaches and demonstrates its usefulness using household survey data from Costa Rica. The hazard rate technique employed in this paper is a natural way of modeling a broad class of problems where the occurrence of an event is uncertain." The study also indicates that "historical data can be used to determine whether the strong trend in the relationship between regional mortality levels and the age at first birth is real or the result of inappropriate data. Additionally, data from other countries might be employed to determine whether the significant effect of male education levels on the risk of subsequent births is a general result. Finally..., the predictions of theoretical models dealing with the number and pace of births can be tested using data from younger women."