SMALL PANELS OF EXPERTS IN DICHOTOMOUS CHOICE SITUATIONS*
研究了在不确定的二分选择情境下，如何设计最优决策规则来最大化专家小组做出正确选择的概率，并给出了3至5人小组的具体规则和医疗、咨询应用案例。
ABSTRACT This paper analyzes an expert resolution problem under an uncertain dichotomous choice situation. The experts share a common system of norms and therefore they all prefer the alternative that best suits their purpose. The selection of such an alternative is referred to as a correct choice. Our analysis of optimal decision rules for panels of independent experts is pursued for n‐member decision‐making bodies, n ≤ 5. The suggested optimality criterion is the maximization of the probability of the panel's making the correct choice. Within our framework, this criterion is equivalent to the more common criterion of expected‐utility maximization. For three‐member panels of experts, the expert resolution problem is solved and illustrated by means of a medical application. For four‐member panels, we list the three relevant decision rules, specify the conditions for all possible rankings of these rules, and, finally, present an extended consulting application. We conclude by listing seven relevant decision rules in the case of five‐member decision‐making bodies.