The Competitive Market Assumption and Capital Budgeting Criteria
指出资本项目收益估计常偏乐观，导致净现值低于预期，并探讨在估计偏差环境下如何决策，对金融从业者和学者有参考价值。
n It has been frequently observed estimated benefits from capital projects tend to be optimistic and the net present values of completed projects are often below those originally estimated. Statman and Tyebjee [9, p28] present evidence that people who evaluate forecasts consider the forecasts to be optimistically biased. Bierman [1, pp. 64-65] presents a series of quotes showing overly optimistic forecasts are regarded as a serious problem by financial officers of Fortune 500 corporations. Over 80% of the respondents to a survey [6, p47] of financial officers of Fortune 500 companies felt revenue forecasts are typically overestimated. It is important to understand how these biases come to be, and how decisions can be made in an environment where the basic estimates are