ECONOMETRIC ISSUES IN MACROECONOMIC MODELS WITH GENERATED REGRESSORS
批判性回顾了在实证模型中使用生成回归元引发的计量经济学问题，讨论了新古典宏观经济学模型中货币中性假说的检验方法，并指出两步估计法的效率条件及误设风险。
Abstract. The paper critically reviews the literature on the econometric issues raised by the use of generated regressors (GR) in empirical models. The economic rationale for the use of GR is considered, with examples being drawn from several macroeconomic examples, including New Classical Macroeconomic (NCM) models which postulate monetary ncutrality. Various estimation methods are discussed for models which include ‘surprise’ or ‘unexpected’ terms and the strengths and weaknesses of each approach are investigated. Drawing upon the work of McAleer and McKenzie (1991b), situations where the typically inefficient two‐step estimation (2SE) method will be efficient are highlighted. Problems of model misspecification and measurement errors are also investigated. An empirical section highlights some of the dangers of using uncorrected 2SE estimation results through a careful consideration of many recent attempts to test the NCM monetary neutrality hypothesis.