Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve
发现，尽管收益率曲线（长期与短期利率之差）在预测衰退方面有显著效果，但专业预测者却未充分利用这一信息，其预测能力甚至不如基于收益率差的简单模型，这一现象至今仍是谜。
For over two decades, researchers have provided evidence that the yield curve, specifically the spread between long- and short-term interest rates, contains useful information for signaling future recessions. Despite these findings, forecasters appear to have generally placed too little weight on the yield spread when projecting declines in the aggregate economy. Indeed, we show that professional forecasters are worse at predicting recessions a few quarters ahead than a simple real-time forecasting model that is based on the yield spread. This relative forecast power of the yield curve remains a puzzle. The appendix is included online as supplementary material.