Effects of treatment beyond the treated: a general equilibrium impact evaluation of Lesotho's cash grants program
研究评估莱索托儿童补助计划对非受助家庭的溢出效应，发现显著的真实收入乘数，但要素供给约束会削弱效果，表明仅关注受助家庭的评估会低估项目影响。
Abstract Africa's social cash transfer programs target the most resource‐constrained households, unlikely to expand supply in response to transfer‐induced demand. We propose a local economy‐wide impact evaluation model and use it to evaluate local spillovers from Lesotho's Child Grants Program. We report Monte‐Carlo confidence bounds around impact‐simulation results. We find significant spillovers to nonrecipient households and significant real income multipliers, although the latter are dampened if factor supply constraints generate excessive inflationary pressures. Our findings raise questions about how to measure the impacts of cash transfers. Evaluations focusing only on eligible households are likely to significantly understate program impacts.