Reason and Rationality during Energy Crises
提出一种从耐用品价格中提取消费者预期的方法，并应用于1970年代两次能源危机期间的二手车市场。结果显示消费者对未来汽油价格的预期是理性的，支持消费者能做出复杂理性选择的观点。
This paper develops a technique for extracting the expectations embedded in the current prices of energy-using durable goods and applies it to used car markets during the two energy "crises" of the 1970s. The resulting estimates indicate that consumers took the energy crises seriously and formed expectations about future gasoline prices that appear rational when compared with the historical gasoline price series, with the forecasts of specialists and experts, or with the actual postsample behavior of gasoline prices. The evidence therefore supports the view that consumers are able to make rather complex choices with a great deal of rationality and casts doubt on the wisdom of policies based on assumptions to the contrary.