A Small-Sample Study of the New-Keynesian Macro Model
用美国数据小样本检验三方程新凯恩斯模型，发现点估计显示美联储1980年后稳定通胀，但计量分析表明其抗通胀立场存在很大不确定性；似然比检验拒绝该模型，并指出修改方向。
This paper presents a small-sample study of the three-equation-three variable New-Keynesian macro model. While the point estimates imply that the Fed has been stabilizing inflation fluctuations since 1980, our econometric analysis suggests considerable uncertainty regarding the stance of the Fed against inflation. The canonical New-Keynesian macro model is strongly rejected by the likelihood ratio test, but we propose the direction in which it needs to be modified in order to fit the data.