Thinking one step ahead: The use of conjectures in competitor analysis
提出一种将对手信念纳入商业规划的方法，通过分析推测变化来评估对手对战略决策的反应，并以日本平板玻璃和美国咖啡烘焙行业为例说明应用。
Abstract An assessment of opponents' reactions to strategic and functional area policy decisions is shown to require knowledge concerning opponents' beliefs about the firm's behavior. This study introduces a methodology for incorporating such conjectures into the business planning process. It presents an analytical measure for these conjectural variations and discusses several illustrations. Examples of the application of the framework are provided by the Japanese flat glass industry and the U.S. domestic coffee roasting industry. The use of a broad range of conjectural variations in competitor analysis is discussed, and implications for business strategy formulation are highlighted.