Speculative Anticipations of Sterling's Return to Gold: Was Keynes Wrong?
检验凯恩斯关于英镑回归金本位前存在投机性升值的观点，发现汇率数据的正向递减趋势与基本面自回归收敛一致，且即使存在基于早期回归预期的投机因素，该结论仍成立，支持凯恩斯的看法。
The view held by Keynes, that there was a ‘speculative appreciation' of sterling prior to its return to the gold standard, has been challenged by Smith and Smith, who argue that expectations of return must have weakened the currency. We demonstrate, first that the positive but decreasing trend displayed in the exchange rate data is consistent with a pattern of autoregressive convergence in fundamentals; and second that this continues to be true when there is a positive ‘speculative' element based on expectations of an early return. Hence the key features of the data seem compatible with Keynes's views.