Will They Stay or Will They Go? The Political Influence of GM‐Averse Importing Companies on Biosafety Decision Makers in Africa
研究了非洲国家因担忧贸易风险而抵制转基因作物时，进口公司如何通过威胁退出市场来影响政策制定者，降低转基因作物商业化的可能性。
Presumed but unproven trade risks are considered a significant factor in the reluctance of African countries to use potentially beneficial genetically modified (GM) crops. We model a threat from an importer to a local policy maker announcing an upcoming confined field trial of a GM crop as a dynamic game of incomplete information and illustrate our analysis with a stochastic simulation. The results show that provided the cost of threatening is small, and the cost of going out of the country is significant, the importer will threaten to go out and may effectively lower the probability of commercializing a GM crop.