Interindustry Mobility and the Cyclical Upgrading of Labor
检验市场出清模型是否与行业就业和工资模式一致，发现行业间流动者的工资比较支持正选择，但模型无法解释流动者工资变化的可预测模式。
We investigate whether a market-clearing model is consistent with industry employment and wage patterns related to the cyclical upgrading of labor. We demonstrate that Roy's (1951) market-clearing model of self-selection would account for cyclical upgrading if industries were characterized by positive selection. Wage comparisons of industry movers and stayers in panel data do reveal widespread positive selection. Also consistent with the Roy model, composition-corrected industry wages are more cyclical in high-wage cyclical industries. The Roy model does fail to explain predictable patterns in the wage changes of industry movers, so we consider several market-clearing and queuing extensions. Copyright 2001 by University of Chicago Press.