RESPONSES TO RISK IN WEED CONTROL DECISIONS UNDER EXPECTED PROFIT MAXIMISATION
研究了在预期利润最大化目标下，风险如何影响作物杂草防治决策，发现风险通常会降低最佳除草剂使用量，且多种不确定因素组合会产生较大影响。
Risk is an important characteristic of decisions about weed control in crops. In this paper it is shown that risk can affect weed control decisions even if the objective of the decision maker is to maximise expected profits: that is, even if the decision maker is ‘risk‐neutral’ in the usual economic sense. This is shown for two decision frameworks: the optimal rate approach and the economic threshold approach. Empirical results are presented for control of ryegrass in wheat in Western Australia. It is found that, in general, risk reduces the optimal level of herbicide use under expected profit maximisation. Although individual sources of risk have a small impact on the optimal decision rules, combinations of uncertain variables can have a relatively large effect.