Rationality and the Role of Judgement in Macroeconomic Forecasting
研究判断性调整对宏观经济预测理性程度的影响，发现调整虽提升预测精度，但未明显改变理性特征；调整会降低纯模型预测的波动性并改变产出与通胀的权衡关系。
This paper examines the effects of judgemental adjustments on the rationality of macroeconomic forecasts. Published forecasts based on large-scale models are rarely purely model-based, but often include extensive adjustments. Forecasters' adjustments tend to improve forecast accuracy, but there is no evidence of their impact on the rationality of forecasts. Using series of revisions to forecasts we find little evidence that published forecasts are excessively smooth in the Nordhaus (1987) sense, but intercept corrections do appear to reduce the variation over time in purely model-based forecasts and to alter the underlying output/inflation trade-off implicit in the model.