DYNAMIC FARM—LEVEL PLANNING MODEL FOR BEEF FEEDLOT PRODUCTION AND MARKETING
研究构建了一个动态规划模型，用于优化肉牛育肥场的饲养计划、出栏体重和补栏决策，实证表明该模型比传统经验法则能提高约10%的利润。
The study is aimed at formulating and empirically applying a dynamic farm‐level model for the planning of optimal beef feedlot production and marketing strategies. A dynamic programming (DP) model is used to calculate the optimal feeding schedule (i.e. liveweight gain sequence), market liveweight and stock replacement for a single bull calf over a one‐year planning period, taking into account seasonal fluctuations of planning parameters such as beef prices, feeding costs, nutritional requirements, and stock replacement costs and obtainability. The DP model includes a linear programming (LP) subroutine for calculating least‐cost feed rations. The planning model is empirically applied using data and assumptions representative offeedlots in the Coastal Plain region of Israel where most feedlot production and marketing decisions are made by ‘rule‐of‐thumb’ using set liveweight gain sequences, market standards and stock replacement decisions. The empirical findings indicate that the profitability of feedlot production and marketing could be increased by an average of 10% over that obtained from ‘rule‐of‐thumb’ decision rules.