Perspective—Cognitive Reactions to Rare Events: Perceptions, Uncertainty, and Learning
研究了罕见事件如何引发认知反应（如一厢情愿、依赖先验信念），并指出先验信念的强度是影响学习的关键，对组织和个人从罕见事件中学习有启示。
Research provides some observations about learning from events that appear to be rare or quite unusual. All learning has uncertain consequences, but learning from rare events is especially problematic. Learners see many idiosyncrasies and exogenous interference, tendencies that suppress learning on an organizational scale. Rare events also rouse uncertainty and bring on reactions to uncertainty such as wishful thinking, reliance on prior beliefs, biased probabilities, a search for more data, cautious action, and playing to audiences. The most important contingencies affecting these reactions are the content and strength of prior beliefs: people are unlikely to learn if they think they have nothing to learn. Although learning from rare events is statistically unusual, and effective learning from rare events is rare, both individuals and organizations can benefit significantly from active efforts to learn from rare events.