The Federal Reserve, the Emerging Markets, and Capital Controls: A High‐Frequency Empirical Investigation
利用七个新兴国家(拉美和亚洲)的周度数据,研究2000年代美联储政策利率变化如何传导至国内短期利率,发现传导程度在拉美和亚洲存在差异,且资本管制并非有效隔离工具。
In this paper, I use weekly data from seven emerging nations—four in Latin America and three in Asia—to investigate the extent to which changes in Fed policy interest rates have been transmitted into domestic short‐term interest rates during the 2000s. The results suggest that there is indeed an interest rates “pass‐through” from the Fed to emerging markets. However, the extent of transmission of interest rate shocks is different—in terms of impact, steady state effect, and dynamics—in Latin America and Asia. The results also indicate that capital controls are not an effective tool for isolating emerging countries from global interest rate disturbances. Changes in the slope of the U.S. yield curve, including changes generated by a “twist” policy, affect domestic interest rates in emerging countries. I also provide a detailed case study for Chile.