How does changing age distribution impact stock prices? A nonparametric approach
用非参数方法研究年龄分布变化对股票价格的影响,发现主要工作年龄人口对股价有显著且稳健的影响,这一结论在G5国家均成立。
Abstract This paper examines whether variations in demographic structure have influenced stock prices. The study employs a nonparametric approach based on the Fourier Flexible Form representation, which relates variations in the entire age distribution to the normalized stock price under a flexible functional form. The main findings of this paper are that there is a significant impact from prime working‐age consumers on the stock price, and that this impact is robust for all G5 countries (France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the USA). These findings survive many robust tests, and are consistent with the predictions from the life‐cycle models. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.