ESTIMATING RISK EFFECTS IN CHINESE FOODGRAIN PRODUCTION
利用复合误差结构和异方差扰动生产函数，分析中国粮食生产中投入要素对产量波动的影响，发现播种面积、化肥和灌溉增加波动，电力使用减少波动，但多数风险效应估计不显著。
Given the importance of Chinese foodgrain production both in China and in the world food market, it is useful to explore the sources of the increased variabilities of China's foodgrain production (Stone and Zhong, 1989). A production function with composite error structure and a heteroscedastic disturbance is applied to cross‐section and time‐series data from China. The function provides information on the contributions of inputs to production variance and therefore on risk. It is found that production variance is positively related to sown area, chemical fertiliser and irrigation, and is negatively related to electricity use. However, most of the estimates determining the marginal risk effects lack statistical significance. This suggests that the measured controllable factors do not contribute very significantly to Chinese foodgrain production variability.