The Positive Economics of Methodology
用一个简化的模型，探讨理论提出前后观察证据对理论可信度的影响，以及如何设计激励结构引导最优研究策略，适合对经济学方法论和科学哲学感兴趣的读者。
Does an observation that is consistent with a theory constitute stronger evidence for that theory if it was made after the theory was proposed rather than before (when the observation might have influenced the theory's formation)? How and why might the research strategy of theorizing prior to observation affect the conditional probability that the theory is true? Is there a socially optimal set of research strategies and on what does it depend? In a world of asymmetric information, what incentive structure can induce that social optimum? This paper answers these questions in a simple, stylized model that provides a starting point for a rigorous economic model of scientific method.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Number: A10.