Labour Force Participation: Timing and Persistence
利用二战自然实验、美国地方劳动力市场截面数据及总量时间序列数据，检验时机效应与持续性效应对劳动力供给周期波动的影响，发现持续性效应更为重要。
This paper examines the relative importance of timing and persistence elements in explaining cyclical fluctuations in labour supply. Data from the natural experiment provided by World War II and cross-sectional data on American local labour markets, as well as aggregate time-series data are used in the empirical work. We find little evidence that timing effects play an important role in labour market dynamics. The evidence suggests that views emphasizing persistence are more accurate, and that previous employment tends to raise the probability of subsequent employment.