Real Interest Rates, Anticipated Inflation, and Unanticipated Money: A Multi-Country Study
用半简化形式方程研究加拿大、西德、美国和英国的实际利率行为，发现预期通胀上升会抑制实际利率，未预期货币冲击与实际利率呈显著负相关。
A bstractIn this paper we examine real interest rate behavior in Canada, West Germany, the United States, and the United Kingdom using a model that yields a semi-reduced form equation linking the real interest rate to monetary growth shocks, anticipated inflation, and expected inflation variance. The estimator used in our analysis accommodates regressors from other regressions-ensuring that accurate inferences are obtained. In all countries we find that increases in anticipated inflation initially dampen real interest rates. In addition, a significant and negative relationship between unanticipated money shocks and real interest across all countries is discovered. Inflation variance typically exhibits little explanatory power.