A short-run econometric analysis of the international coffee market
构建了世界咖啡市场的短期计量经济模型，基于不确定性下的优化行为推导生产者、库存持有者、投机者和消费者的行为方程，并用主要进出口国的数据验证了模型。
We develop a short-run econometric model for the world coffee market and give empirical evidence on the behavioural equations of the model for the major coffee importing and exporting countries. The behavioural relationships for producers, Inventory holders, speculators and consumers are derived from optimising considerations in an uncertain environment. Spot and futures prices adjust to clear the spot and futures markets at each period. International trade flows of coffee are determined by the optimising behaviour of the agents (countries) in the model. The empirical evidence confirms our hypothesis of a highly structured model which is consistent with profit maximising behaviour under uncertainty.